How Bad Is the Current Drought?

Since the end of our rainy season in early fall, rainfall totals across west-central Florida have dropped dramatically. Local meteorologists report this has been one of the driest fall–winter periods in over a century, with rainfall deficits approaching 10 inches below average in some areas.

This prolonged lack of rainfall is reflected in two key drought measurements for our County:

Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI): 650–699
This index estimates how much moisture is available to plants in the top eight inches of soil. Numbers above 600 indicate severe soil dryness and elevated wildfire risk. We have been over 500 since October!
U.S. Drought Monitor: D3 – Extreme Drought

This is the second-highest category on a five-tier national scale. Only one level remains above it. Looking at historical data the only comparable droughts in recent history for our region were in 2011-2012 and 2000-2001. While Sarasota County did briefly reach a D3 level during the 2022 drought after Hurricane Ian.

Historically, the late winter and spring months (February through May) are the driest period of the year in west-central Florida. In other words, we are just exiting this period, and entering the wet season, but there are still concerns for water resources and wildfire potential.

Current Impacts: Watering Restrictions and Visible Changes

Photo: National Integrated Drought Information System.

One of the most noticeable drought impacts is the drop in water levels in ponds, lakes, and canals. Less visible—but equally important—is the effect on underground water supplies.

The Southwest Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) has enacted Modified Phase II Water Shortage Restrictions, limiting lawn irrigation to one day per week across the district, including private well users. SWFWMD previously issued a Phase II restriction on January 27, 2026 and a Phase I restriction November 11, 2025.

Standard Lawn Watering Schedule (Based on Address Number)

0–1: Monday
2–3: Tuesday
4–5: Wednesday
6–7: Thursday
8–9: Friday
Mixed/Undetermined Addresses: Friday

Allowed Watering Hours

12:01 a.m. – 8:00 a.m. or
6:00 p.m. – 11:59 p.m.
Properties under one acre must choose only one of these windows.

Important Exceptions

Low-volume irrigation (micro-irrigation, drip, soaker hoses, or hand watering) for shrubs and landscape beds is allowed any day and time.
For your landscape plants, convert traditional sprinklers to micro-irrigation. Photo: UF/IFAS

Newly installed lawns or plantings may have temporary establishment allowances.
Reclaimed water systems may follow different rules.

Fountains, Car Washing, and Pressure Washing

Water conservation extends beyond irrigation. Current guidelines include:

Car washing at home is only allowed on your designated watering day and must use a hose with a shutoff nozzle.
Aesthetic fountains are limited to eight hours per day, with exemptions for certain functional or commercial water features.
Annual pressure washing for maintenance or preparation for painting is permitted.
HOAs and community associations may not require increased water use for aesthetic standards, including forced plant replacement or excessive washing.

Aquifer Impacts: The Hidden Side of Drought

Cross-section of groundwater pumped from aquifers for potable use. Photo: Tampa Bay Water

Approximately half of Sarasota County’s water supply is drawn from groundwater wells. During extended drought, aquifers struggle to recharge. When freshwater levels drop too low, saltwater intrusion from the Gulf can occur, contaminating wells and making water unsuitable for irrigation or household use.

Water testing programs in recent years have shown an increase in salinity concerns anecdotally for our area. Once saltwater intrusion occurs, reversal is difficult and the irrigation system becomes useless. Responsible irrigation practices and community awareness on watering restrictions are critical in protecting this shared resource. So, help protect our water by informing neighbors about current restrictions and the resources provided by their local Extension Office to help them conserve water.

Burn Ban and Fire Safety

Our region has been under a burn ban since October, and it is likely to remain in place as drought conditions persist. A burn ban means all outdoor burning is prohibited unless a permit has been issued and is applicable to specific unincorporated areas.

Fire Safety Tips for Residents

Create defensible space zones around homes and structures.
Remove dead vegetation, leaves, and debris from yards, roofs, and gutters.
Keep emergency kits ready if you live near wooded or wildland areas.
Avoid activities that produce sparks on dry, windy days.
Use caution when grilling or camping.
Report any visible fire immediately by calling 911.

Seasonal Outlook: What’s Ahead?

Drought Remains but Likely to Improve

With the rainy season beginning, precipitation will provide temporary but immediate relief. According to the Florida Climate Center, our region needs about 19″ of rainfall between May and July to improve drought conditions. The precipitation outlook for early rainy season shows Southwest Florida receiving precipitation above ‘normal’ levels, while the end of rainy season shows less than ‘normal’ levels of precipitation. Meteorologists predict due to developing El Niño conditions there will be fewer Atlantic hurricanes, followed by a wetter, stormier weather for the fall and winter.

Plant and Wildlife Impacts

While it’s easy to assume our established landscapes and native wildlife can simply “tough it out,” prolonged drought can push even natural systems to their limits. If conditions were to intensify into Exceptional (D4) drought, impacts can extend beyond lawns impacting established Florida-friendly and native shrubs and trees. During a past severe drought on Florida’s east coast, I visited a state park and was genuinely surprised to see mature native trees declining or already dead from lack of moisture. Wildlife was struggling as well—birds were repeatedly visiting the condensation dripping from our camper’s air conditioner just to get a drink. Moments like that are a powerful reminder that even wilderness areas are not immune. In rare but extreme dry periods, responsible supplemental watering—applied only as needed—can help prevent permanent plant loss in your landscape, especially for younger trees and shrubs under four years old. Even well-established plants, however, can decline if drought becomes severe enough. Providing a simple, regularly cleaned bird bath or shallow water source for wildlife can also be a meaningful step, particularly in developed areas where access to natural wetlands and waterways has been reduced. Thoughtful, efficient water use during severe drought supports both landscape resilience and the broader ecosystem without undermining conservation goals.

Fire Season Risk

Florida’s peak wildfire season typically runs April through June. Starting with Florida Wildfire Awareness Week which is observed each year during the first full week of April and was created in response to the devastating 1998 wildfire season in Florida, when more than 500,000 acres burned statewide and hundreds of homes and structures were damaged or destroyed. Compounding this year’s risk is the presence of additional dead plant material from recent cold weather events and hurricanes, which increases available fuel for fires. Already hundreds of wildfires have burned thousands of acres statewide since the start of the year, and totals are expected to rise as dry conditions continue, and we enter peak fire season. So, learn how to be wildfire ready.

What You Can Do Right Now

Follow local watering restrictions closely.
Convert high-water turf areas to low-water landscape beds where possible.
Use mulch to retain soil moisture. This is principle #4 of the Florida-Friendly Landscaping™ Program for a reason!
Install drip or micro-irrigation instead of overhead sprinklers.
Schedule a free Irrigation Evaluation to find opportunities in your landscape for efficiency upgrades and water conservation.
Install Rain Barrels and cisterns. Sarasota County offers rain barrels at cost to residents every other month!
Share accurate irrigation restrictions and drought information with neighbors and community groups.
Stay updated on local emergency and fire advisories.

Drought is a natural part of Florida’s climate cycle, but responsible water use and proactive fire safety can greatly reduce its long-term impacts on our communities, landscapes, and natural resources.

Suncoast Florida Drought Update: What It Means for Your Landscape, Water Supply, and Fire Risk

How Bad Is the Current Drought?

Current Impacts: Watering Restrictions and Visible Changes