Clues to who may develop obesity later in life can be found within the first year after birth, according to new long-term research and co-authored by University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences experts.
The study is part of a broader collaboration with researchers at Linköping University, led by Johnny Ludvigsson, who established a group known as All Babies in Southeast Sweden (ABIS) cohort in Sweden. Published in an American Society for Microbiology journal, the study followed a large group of children in this cohort from birth into adulthood over more than two decades, tracking how early-life factors relate to later health outcomes.
Researchers analyzed blood samples collected at birth and gut bacteria from stool samples taken at about age one, before children’s diets begin to vary widely. They found that children
who later became obese already showed subtle biological differences early in life, including changes in certain proteins in their blood and types of bacteria living in the digestive system.
Some of these early signals appeared independent of parental weight, suggesting that obesity risk cannot be explained by family history or lifestyle factors alone. However, combining these biological markers with basic information such as parental weight improved the ability to predict long-term risk.
“This doesn’t mean that obesity is divine, that it’s predestined, but it does mean that there’s a certain vulnerability,” said Angelica Ahrens, lead author of the study and UF/IFAS assistant research scientist in microbiology. “We’re asking, ‘can that vulnerability be acted upon to help those children, to support them metabolically, so they do not develop obesity.’”
The findings suggest that obesity risk may begin earlier than previously recognized, offering potential opportunities for earlier screening and prevention. The first year of life, in particular, may represent a critical window for identifying risk and taking steps to support healthy development.
“Several of the protein markers that we found have been implicated in insulin resistance, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and metabolic dysregulation, but typically studies of those markers have been conducted in adults who already exhibit those conditions,” said Ahrens. “A huge differentiation with this study is that we’re seeing these proteins when the child is born.”
Researchers also found that combining early biological data with advanced analytical tools improved prediction. Using machine learning models, the team was able to better identify patterns linked to later obesity.
“With institutional partnership and support from NVIDIA, we were able to take these markers together into a machine learning model,” said Ahrens. “Without that it would take a lot more time to fine tune models and come to clear answers. Adding in these biological markers helped to increase predictability and increased the accuracy of our models substantially, well beyond questionnaire data and the early life environmental factors alone.”
“How pathways related to these birth and infant markers compound risk alongside early-life factors like carbohydrate intake or sedentary lifestyle is an area of future interest,” said Ahrens.
While the findings do not yet translate into clinical screening tools, they point to the possibility of identifying at-risk children earlier and developing strategies to support healthier outcomes over time.
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The mission of the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) is to develop knowledge relevant to agricultural, human and natural resources and to make that knowledge available to sustain and enhance the quality of human life. With more than a dozen research facilities, 67 county Extension offices, and award-winning students and faculty in the UF College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, UF/IFAS brings science-based solutions to the state’s agricultural and natural resources industries, and all Florida residents.
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