On July 24th, the USDA mid-year Cattle Inventory report was released. All cattle and calves totaled 94.2 million head, a slight increase of 0.2%. Beef cows totaled 28.45 million head, down about 1% or 200 thousand head from July 2025. Excluding 2024 when the July report was suspended, beef cow numbers in this report have been declining since 2019. The number of dairy cows totaled at 9.65 million head, up about 2% from last July.
Calf Crop & Feeder Cattle Supply
The 2026 calf crop is estimated to total at 32.5 million head which would be a 1.5% decrease from 2025. Roughly 74% of the calf crop is estimated to have been born in the first half of the year. With a smaller calf crop, this will result in tighter cattle supplies and reduced beef production in 2027. Feeder cattle supply (calves outside of feedlots) is estimated to reach 33.6 million head, down 0.6%. This would be the smallest supply of feeder cattle since 1996, based on available data.
Heifer Retention Efforts
Heifers held for beef cow replacement totaled 3.8 million head which is an increase of 2.7% compared to the July 2025 report. While this increase is a sign of more heifers being retained, it is still not a significant increase to indicate widespread expansion. The percentage of heifers on feed further explains expansion efforts.
The July Cattle on Feed report provides a breakdown of steers and heifers on feed. As of July 1, heifers represented 37.4% of all cattle on feed. This is a decrease from the 38.7% seen in January but is relatively unchanged compared to the last quarterly breakdown in April. An increase in replacement heifers and small, steady decreases in the percentage of heifers on feed do indicate that more producers are keeping back heifers but in a cautious manner. For perspective, when the heifers on feed percentage drops to around 32-34%, we can expect that significant expansion efforts are underway.
Questions, contact Hannah at h.baker@ufl.edu
See this update and other helpful resources online at https://rcrec-ona.ifas.ufl.edu/about/directory/staff/hannah-baker/
Written July 2026
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