As we look back on the 2024 cattle industry, there are many things to be thankful for and reflect on, with many more things to look forward to and plan for in 2025. Tight supplies, record-level/breaking prices, carcass weights, and culling rates were some of the main talking points for 2024 as we discussed historical trends along with circumstances such as H5N1, drought impacts, high input costs, elections, and the detection of New World Screwworm that temporarily halted imports of cattle from Mexico at the end of the year. It is safe to say that 2024 was an eventful year for the cattle industry. This blog gives a brief summary of what happened in 2024 and how it sets the stage for what we can possibly expect in 2025.
Prices
Feeder cattle prices started rising in 2023 and reached record levels in 2024 due to tight supplies. Prices for 450-500-pound steer calves in Florida ended 2024 at around $314/cwt, a 20 percent increase from 2023. Average annual prices for this same weight class were roughly 23 percent higher than 2023 ($56/cwt). While location affects prices for cull cattle from state to state and even within a state, it can be concluded that national prices for cull cows were also more than favorable in 2024. The national weighted average price for lean (85%) cull cows in 2024 was $122.51/cwt, a 32 percent increase from 2023.
Culling Rate & Carcass Weights
Liquidation over the last couple of years has diminished the supply of beef cows available for slaughter. Demand for ground beef products has remained fairly steady, supporting high prices for lean trimmings and cull cows. Total beef cow slaughter declined by 18 percent in 2024, but we were still culling about 10 percent of our beef cows. The culling percentage during the last expansion was about eight percent. However, despite having fewer cull cows, heavier carcass weights of fed cattle and more heifers entering feedlots than being retained helped to offset the overall decline in cattle slaughter. As of October 2024, almost 40 percent of cattle on feed were heifers. (This percentage was in the lower 30s during the last expansion). Steer and heifer carcasses reached record level carcass weights with average dressed weights of 929 pounds and 846 pounds and peaks of 960 pounds and 869 pounds. As a result of heifer slaughter numbers and increased carcass weights, data indicates that beef production for 2024 only declined by about 0.6 percent compared to the expected decline of about four percent at the beginning of 2024.
2024 will most certainly be a year to remember for the beef cattle industry. But it might also be safe to say that 2025 could be just as “exciting” with the likely continuation of high prices for the next couple of years and preparing to answer the question of when we will be able to start rebuilding and expanding.
2025
The USDA Inventory Report will be released at the end of January, giving us a clearer picture of the state of the beef cow herd. If you would like to read more about what will be in the 2025 January Inventory Report along with other details relating to information in this article, please see the 2025 January Annual Report that will be available in February at https://rcrec-ona.ifas.ufl.edu/about/directory/staff/hannah-baker/ under ‘Annual Report Summaries’. Other resources are also available at this website such as the monthly market updates, presentations, and estimation tools!
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