The USDA revised ending stock projections downward for peanuts and cotton and upward for corn in the January crop reports released this week (Oil Crops Outlook and WASDE). Based on report data, the market outlook for peanuts and cotton improved slightly, while the outlook for corn deteriorated.
Peanuts
The U.S. peanut ending stock projection for the 2025-26 marketing year (ending July 31) was revised downward 7% from the December report. The change was mostly the result of a downward revision in the 2025 peanut yield estimate. USDA reduced their estimate of the average peanut yield from 3,930 to 3,767 pounds per acre. The ending stock projection fell from 2.09 billion to 1.94 billion pounds, which is average for the past 15 years. The projected stocks-to-use ratio (28%) is below average.
Although 2025 peanut production was record high for the U.S., peanut demand has been increasing as well. On balance, the supply, demand, and stock indicators suggest that the peanut price should hold at average or slightly above average levels. The price may rise or fall later this year, depending on the number of acres planted in peanuts and the pace of peanut disappearance. The average price received by Florida producers in 2025 through November (for old crop and new crop) was $522/ton (USDA). The average price received by Florida producers since 2018 is $477/ton (USDA).
Cotton
The U.S. cotton ending stock projection for the 2025-26 marketing year was revised downward 7% from the December report. The average cotton yield estimate was revised from 929 pounds down to 856 pounds per acre. Projected ending stocks were revised from 4.5 million bales to 4.2 million bales.
The average price received for upland cotton lint by Florida producers between 2018 and 2024 was $0.82 per pound. In 2025, the average daily December futures price was $0.67 per pound. December 2026 futures closed at $0.69 per pound on January 14th.
Corn
The U.S corn ending stock projection for the 2025-26 marketing year (ending August 31) was revised upward 10% to 2.227 billion bushels. The increase was primarily the result of upward revisions in beginning stocks, acres harvested, and average yield. U.S. corn production in 2025 was a record high of more than 17 billion bushels. Demand for corn has been strong, but the projected stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6% is relatively high, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Whereas the average price received by Florida producers in 2020-2024 was $5.86 per bushel (USDA), local quotes obtained during August 2025 averaged $4.71 per bushel. The September 2026 futures contract dropped $0.19 per bushel between January 9th and January 14th, closing at $4.35 per bushel. If Suwannee Valley corn growers can get a local basis of $0.80 over the September board, the current contract price for August delivery would be $5.15 per bushel.
Costs & Returns
Key input prices have risen over the past year. The combination of low crop prices and high input costs dampens the profit potential for row crops in 2026. Fertilizer prices have increased, which will increase corn and cotton production costs. For example, local quotes show that UAN 28 increased 23% and muriate of potash increased 9% since a year ago.
Ideally, producers prepare budgets that estimate costs and returns per crop and field, as well as a marketing plan that includes forward contracting targets. Sample 2026 crop budgets for North Florida peanuts, cotton, and corn will be available by the end of January on the North Florida Research & Education Center – Suwannee Valley website.
References
USDA. Quick Stats. Available at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/.
USDA. Oil Crops Outlook. January 14, 2026. Available at https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/soybeans-and-oil-crops/market-outlook.
USDA. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDA). January 12, 2026. Available at https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/world-agricultural-supply-and-demand-estimates.
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