Authors:  Kevin Athearn, Amanda Phillips, and Joel Love

In the Suwannee Valley field corn is grown for grain, silage, and deer food plots. Grain corn is sold to local buyer elevators, primarily for use as animal feed. Suwannee Valley grain corn is commonly planted in March and April and harvested in late July and August. Although some Suwannee Valley corn growers have grain bins to store corn after harvest, many do not. Growers without storage capacity must sell their corn at harvest or prior to harvest.

Corn buyers offer forward contracts that set a price prior to harvest. Forward contracts for August delivery are commonly tied to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September futures contract price. Local bids are quoted as a certain amount (basis) over the futures contract price. In recent years, the local basis for August delivery has typically ranged from $0.30 to $1.00 per bushel over the September futures price.

Each year corn growers must decide how many bushels, if any, to sell before harvest and when to lock in contracts. They may lock in the basis separately or lock in the full price (futures price and basis). Weekly quotes obtained from buyers the last three years show that the basis offered by an individual buyer changes infrequently, whereas the futures price changes daily. This blog provides an update on the current market outlook for grain corn and may be helpful for growers considering the timing of when to sell corn.

Supply and Demand Projections

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issues monthly supply and demand estimates for corn. The estimates indicate how tight stocks are relative to demand, and futures prices react to changes in their estimates. The corn marketing year runs from September 1^st through August 31^st. The 2024/25 marketing year consists primarily of “old crop” corn that was harvested between September and December 2024 and is being sold through August 2025. The September 2025 futures price is affected both by 2024/25 ending stocks (estimated for August 31, 2025) and by projections for the “new crop” 2025/26 marketing year.

Figure 1 shows the latest USDA supply and demand projections for the 2024/25 marketing year. The projected ending stocks (1.54 billion bushels) and stocks-to-use ratio (10.2%) indicate a moderate to relatively tight supply situation. Since the 2018/19 marketing year, stocks-to-use ratios have ranged from 8.3% to 15.7%. The current projections suggest a moderate to relatively high corn price outlook for the current marketing year.

The USDA released its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook report on February 27^th, showing initial projections for the 2025/26 marketing year. Projections for high corn acreage (94 million acres) and trend yield (181 bushels/acre) result in projected U.S. corn production of 15.6 billion bushels. If realized, that high level of production would be a U.S. record for corn. Expectations of a record or near-record “new crop” are pulling corn prices downward.

September Futures Price Trends Since January 1st

Figure 2 shows the trend in price of the CBOT September 2025 futures contract for corn between January 1^st and March 14^th, 2025. The September futures contract started the year at a price of $4.45 per bushel. On January 10^th, the USDA released a World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showing a substantial reduction in the average corn yield estimate for the 2024 crop relative to the December report (179.3 bushels per acre instead of 183.1 bushels per acre). That evidence of tighter supplies sent the corn price on an upward trend, peaking at $4.83 per bushel on February 20^th.

On February 27^th, the USDA released its Grains and Oilseeds Outlook report projecting record corn production in 2025. That projection has contributed to a downward price trend from late February through mid-March. During that period, the September futures price reached a low of $4.41 per bushel on March 4^th and closed at $4.45 per bushel on March 14^th.

Factors that will likely affect the September futures price this spring include any changes in expectations for U.S. planted acreage and growing conditions, as well as domestic and export demand. Export demand could be affected by the size of the South American corn harvest and possible trade disputes and tariffs. Changes in these factors are difficult to anticipate, making it difficult to predict the direction of changes in the September futures price.

Monthly Price Patterns over the Past 20 Years

Although changes in the September futures price cannot be predicted with much certainty, subtle seasonal patterns are evident. Figure 3 shows the average monthly price in January through July relative to the August price of the September futures contract for each of the past 20 years. The August price represents what growers would be paid if they wait until harvest to sell their corn. Prices in prior months represent forward contracts available to corn growers. Numbers highlighted in green are months when the price was higher than it was in August of that year. Numbers highlighted in red are months when the price was lower than it was in August of that year.

Figure 3 shows that the September futures contract price is often higher in January through July than it is in August. Only in 2011 and 2012 was the price higher in August than it was in any prior month. The last row in Figure 3 shows the 20-year average percentage for each month relative to the August price. June has the highest average (10% above the August price), and July has the lowest average (4% over the August price).

Conclusions

So far this year, the September futures contract has been trading in the $4.41 to $4.83 per bushel range. Moderately tight “old crop” stocks and a strong pace of export sales have provided upward support. Projections for high corn production in 2025 and concerns about possible declines in export sales are putting downward pressure on prices.

Corn growers who wait until harvest to sell and who do not have storage capacity are exposed to considerable price risk. Selling corn via forward contracts reduces price risk. Although in some years growers might obtain a higher price waiting until August, patterns from the past 20 years show that in most years growers will obtain a higher price by forward contracting prior to August.

Although changes in the September futures contract price cannot be predicted with any certainty, growers can reduce their risk by selling at least a portion of their expected harvest via forward contracts. And in most years it appears that the grower’s average price will be higher when forward contracting than waiting to sell at harvest time. One strategy to reduce risk and likely improve average price is to sell a portion of the expected harvest before planting, sell another portion during spring rallies, and sell the remaining portion at harvest time. Additionally, investments in on-farm grain storage capacity could allow growers to take advantage of market fluctuations postharvest.

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