Source(s):
Clyde Fraisse cfraisse@ufl.edu, (352) 392-1864 ext. 239
John Beasley jbeasley@uga.edu, (229) 386-3328
David Zierden zierden@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-3417
GAINESVILLE, Fla.—Recent rains came just in time for Southeastern cotton and peanut crops, and farmers can look forward to adequate rainfall throughout the summer.
That’s the word from the Southeast Climate Consortium, or SECC, which issues quarterly forecasts to help farmers in Alabama, Florida and Georgia manage their crops.
“We had a wet start earlier in the spring, but May was dry in some peanut and cotton areas,” said Clyde Fraisse, an extension specialist and SECC researcher at the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences in Gainesville.
“Peanut and cotton fields were showing stress that could have retarded plant development,” Fraisse said.
The rest of the summer should be hot, humid and hazy, according to the SECC’s summer climate outlook, issued today.
“That’s good news for agriculture throughout the Southeast,” Fraisse said.
Florida State University’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, or COAPS, produces the SECC climate forecasts. At the Tallahassee center, researchers monitor surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator to predict potential weather effects in the Southeastern United States.
Periodic warming or cooling in those surface temperatures, known respectively as El Niño and La Niña, can affect U.S. weather patterns. El Niños are associated with increased winter rainfall, while La Niñas have the opposite effect.
Currently, Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are near normal, a situation experts call a neutral phase, according to the SECC. As with El Ninos and La Ninas, neutral phases affect global weather, including conditions in the Southeast.
“For the past two years, the Southeast has been in a neutral phase,” said COAPS Director Jim O’Brien. “People often assume that a neutral phase will bring average weather.”
But, O’Brien said, that’s not necessarily true.
“Weather can be all over the place — from dry to wet or average — in a neutral phase. Still, there’s currently no indication of drought this summer, so chances are good that crops will have adequate moisture,” he said.
Rainfall in Jackson County, Fla., averages 4.5 inches in May of neutral-phase years. This year, cotton plots monitored by the Jackson County Extension Service received only 1.7 inches of rain during May, but received 2.2 inches in the first week of June alone.
The SECC forecast of typical summer conditions should help peanut farmers use their resources effectively, said John Beasley, a University of Georgia extension agronomist in Tifton.
“They know if there is a higher probability of rainfall they can irrigate less, which saves money,” Beasley said. “On the other hand, it’s important for them to keep up their fungicide applications, since most diseases thrive in wet conditions.
“We were in a neutral phase last summer as well,” he said. “Peanut and cotton growers did very well, and they’re hoping for another good year.”
The forecast also indicates little chance of wildfires this summer, due to three factors — recent heavy rains, the likelihood of a wet summer and the end of the Southeast’s traditional wildfire season, which runs from January through early June.
SECC’s fall outlook, due in early September, will indicate whether the neutral phase is continuing, said David Zierden, an SECC researcher at the Tallahassee center.
The consortium’s Web site, http://agclimate.org, is available to the public and provides monthly forecasts of rainfall and temperature for all counties in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.
Member institutions of SECC are the University of Florida, Florida State University, University of Miami, University of Georgia, Auburn University and University of Alabama at Huntsville.
SECC is funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the USDA Cooperative States Research, Education and Extension Service and the USDA’s Risk Management Agency.
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