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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are predicting an above-normal hurricane season!

An above-normal 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is expected, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The outlook predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30 with August and September being the most active months.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a likely range of 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

Infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, credit: NOAA

The combination of several climate factors is driving the strong likelihood for above-normal activity in the Atlantic this year. First, a trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity. In addition, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, coupled with reduced vertical wind shear, and an enhanced West African monsoon all increase the likelihood for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

Alphabetical list of the 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone names. Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal already happen! Credit: World Meteorological Organization

 

Most important during a hurricane is your family’s safety. One thing you can do to protect your family and home is to hurricane-proof your landscape. Now is the time to start with pruning and maintenance.  Do not wait too long!

Resources:

NOAA, https://www.noaa.gov/

UF / IFAS Gardening solutions, https://gardeningsolutions.ifas.ufl.edu/care/weather/hurricane-landscaping.html