Recently, we held an amazing one-hour webinar about the Outlook of the 2024 Hurricane Season with Mr. Nick Carr, who is the Senior Forecaster at the National Weather Service (NWS), affiliated with NOAA. As you can guess, the intensity of the hurricane season will be an above normal season with 17-25 named storms (historical average 14), 8-13 hurricanes (historical average 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (historical average 3), (figure 1 and 2).
This season is above average because of the combination of many factors such as, the sea surface temperature in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean (at least 80F), the transitioning into La Niña (which produces more hurricanes in the Caribbean and Atlantic Basin due to weaker vertical wind shear), and an active Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and West African Monsoon (Figure 3.-)
During the webinar, an intriguing question arose: which element causes the majority of deaths from Tropical Cyclones? Is it wind, tornadoes, or storm surge? If you guessed storm surge, you are correct, as it accounts for 49% of all storm related fatalities (Figure 4).
The slope of the ocean floor also plays a significant role in storm surge impact: steeper slopes like those near Miami-Dade reduce surge risk, whereas flatter slopes, such as those near Fort Myers, increase surge risk (Figure 5).
If you like to access the full webinar, go to:
The final message of Mr. Carr was very simple, be informed and be safe, don’t be a casualty!
Resources:
National Weather Service:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/
https://www.youtube.com/NWSNHC
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