Prices
Beef prices were and still are a main topic of discussion among consumers, producers, and analysts – and rightly so. Retail prices for choice beef products hit just over $10/lb in December and have stayed in that price range so far in 2026. The February retail price reached $10.12/lb, 17% higher than the same month last year and 42% higher than the 5-year February average of $7.14/lb.
While there have been some price declines in certain primal and wholesale cuts due to seasonal demand, overall beef prices are not expected to decline in 2026. Supplies are tightening and consumer demand has remained strong. The 2026 consumer demand index was 10 points higher than in 2025. Strong demand for high-quality products has also encouraged continued improvements in beef quality. Prime graded beef averaged 12% of all beef graded in 2025 with that percentage sitting at 14% in 2026 so far. However, the recent increase in fuel prices could influence how much consumers can and/or are willing to spend on beef. A decrease in consumer demand would certainly affect both beef and cattle prices.
Production
Domestic beef production so far in 2026 totals at just over 4 billion pounds, down 7.7% from the same period last year. The current forecast for the year is 25.8 billion pounds, almost 1% below 2025 production. Imports are expected to increase in 2026 to specifically help maintain ground beef supply, similar to 2025. In 2025, 52% of all beef imports were lean trim with the other 48% consisting of primals (21%), cuts (18%), offals (4%), and cooked (5%) (Peel 2026, March 30th Cow-Calf Corner Newsletter). Tightening cattle supplies, both fed and non-fed, will continue to affect beef supplies and prices throughout the year. Heading into the summer grilling months, it will be interesting to see if and how demand shifts among consumers if fuel costs continue to rise, further tightening income available to spend on beef.
Questions, contact Hannah at h.baker@ufl.edu
See this update and other helpful resources online at https://rcrec-ona.ifas.ufl.edu/about/directory/staff/hannah-baker/
Written March 2026
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