Nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen sharply. The increase in cost of a key input for corn production has implications for planted acreage, yields, corn price outlook, and profit margins.
Fertilizer Prices
As shown in Figure 1, the retail price of nitrogen fertilizer has spiked upward in recent weeks. The reported average retail price for urea in midwestern states during the week ending March 13th ($674/ton) was 12% higher than a month ago and 23% higher than a year ago. The retail price for UAN28 during the week ending March 13th ($464/ton) was 13% higher than a month ago and 31% higher than a year ago (Quinn, 2026; MyDTN). Quotes from North Florida fertilizer suppliers confirm similar increases.
The most recent spike in fertilizer prices is attributed to the US-Israel war on Iran and Iran’s threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are major exporters of nitrogen fertilizer, and the Strait of Hormuz is an important shipping corridor for fertilizer and petroleum (Morgan, 2026b).
Planting Decisions and Corn Acreage
Farmers consider expected crop profit in their planting decisions. A large portion of corn acreage in the U.S. is rotated with soybeans. Higher yields and lower input costs are associated with fields that grow corn following soybeans, or vice versa, compared to fields that grow the same crop year after year. However, some farmers choose to plant corn after corn or soybeans after soybeans if price and cost factors create higher profit expectations despite lower yields (Livingston et al., 2015; Schnitkey et al., 2021).
Rising nitrogen fertilizer prices will increase corn production costs and reduce corn profitability relative to soybeans, all else equal. In response, some acreage may shift from corn to soybeans. However, past rotation decisions, the timing of fertilizer purchases, and corn (and soybean) prices will also affect crop profits and planting decisions.
Figure 2 illustrates the alternating tendency of U.S. corn and soybean planted acres. Based on the pattern of past acreage decisions, 2026 corn acreage is expected to be lower and soybean acreage higher than in 2025. Current USDA projections peg 2026 planted acres at 94.0 million for corn and 85.0 for soybeans. However, USDA projections at this stage have not been reliable predictors of actual corn acreage. One commentator estimates that the spike in fertilizer prices could reduce corn acreage by another one to one-and-a-half million acres (Morgan, 2026a). Other commentators predict 2026 corn acreage will be above the current USDA projection.
In the Southeast, corn planting has already begun, and in the Corn Belt, many corn farmers have already applied some fertilizer before planting. Many farmers have already made corn planting decisions and purchased a portion of the fertilizer needed for this year’s crop, which could limit the effect of current fertilizer price changes on corn acreage.
Corn Prices
Corn prices are positively correlated with fertilizer and fuel prices (Schnitkey et al., 2021; Smith & Boyer, 2023). Strong demand for corn, the recent spike in fertilizer and fuel prices, and lower corn acreage projections have coincided with increased corn prices. Figure 3 shows the daily September 2026 futures contract price to which most local prices for delivery at harvest are benchmarked. The price was $4.47 per bushel on January 2nd, $4.51 per bushel on February 13th, and closed at $4.79 per bushel on March 13th.
Corn price expectations, relative to costs and alternative crop prices, can affect individual farm planting decisions. Whereas the December 2026 corn contract price has increased 7%, the November 2026 soybean contract price has increased 9% since the beginning of the year (Barchart.com). The increase in soybean-to-corn price ratio could incentivize more soybean acres. However, the ratio remains below average, suggesting that many farmers may still view corn as the more profitable option.
Whereas corn price expectations affect individual farm planting decisions, aggregated crop acreage and yields will affect the price. Higher fertilizer prices could lead farmers to apply less fertilizer, possibly lowering average yields. Lower corn acreage and lower yields would put upward pressure on corn prices.
Corn Profitability
Sample North Florida corn budgets show negative profit expectations for 2026. How much will the recent increases in fertilizer, fuel, and corn prices affect corn profitability? Over the past four weeks, the retail price of N fertilizer in the form of UAN28 increased from $0.734/lb N to $0.829/lb N (MyDTN), and the price of diesel increased by $1.28/gallon (U.S. EIA). The September futures price of corn increased from $4.51 to $4.79/bushel over the past four weeks (Barchart.com).
Based on the sample budgets, current fuel and fertilizer prices raise production costs about $50 per acre compared to a month ago. Current corn prices raise crop revenue $57 per acre compared to a month ago. So far, as of March 13, 2026, the recent increase in corn price has offset the effect of higher fertilizer and fuel prices on corn profitability.
Whether fuel and fertilizer prices continue to increase or drop back down depends largely on how soon the supply disruptions in the Middle East are alleviated. How prices will change during the corn growing season and the resulting profitability of the 2026 corn crop are uncertain.
References
Livingston, M., M.J. Roberts, and Y. Zhang. 2015. Optimal sequential plantings of corn and soybeans under price uncertainty. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97(3): 855-878. https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article-abstract/97/3/855/65935
Morgan, T. Why the Iran conflict could shrink U.S. corn plantings this spring. AgWeb.com. March 6, 2026. https://www.agweb.com/news/crops/corn/why-iran-conflict-could-shrink-u-s-corn-plantings-spring
Morgan, T. The Iran War is Sending Fertilizer Prices Soaring at the Worst Time for Farmers. AgWeb.com. March 10, 2026. https://www.agweb.com/news/policy/politics/farmers-face-skyrocketing-fertilizer-prices-there-short-and-long-term-fix
Quinn, R. DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends. February 18, 2026. DTN Progressive Farmer. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2026/02/18/eight-major-fertilizers-see-prices
Schnitkey, G., C. Zulauf, K. Swanson, and N. Paulson. 2021. 2022 planting decisions, nitrogen fertilizer prices, and corn and soybean prices. Farmdoc Daily (11): 145. https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/10/2022-planting-decisions-nitrogen-fertilizer-prices-and-corn-and-soybean-prices.html
Smith, A. and C. Boyer. 2023. Urea, natural gas, and corn price correlations. Southern Ag Today 3(18.1). https://southernagtoday.org/2023/05/01/urea-natural-gas-and-corn-price-correlations/
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