Cattle Industry in the U.S. Indicates Record Highs and Lows

Beef currently has a strong demand, at the grocery store and the sale barn. Across the U.S. beef cattle professionals are highlighting topics including decreased beef cattle numbers, larger and more efficient cattle, almost record high cattle prices, and increased beef quality.

The Cattle Cycle

In Florida, most of the ranches are cow calf operations, meaning cattle are bred and calves are born to be sold at weanling or yearling age. The cattle market is not vertically integrated, allowing separate sectors of the industry to make profit during different periods of the cattle cycle. In addition, this cycle includes how cattle herds will expand and contract over the years according to prices, environmental factors like droughts, and more. The cattle cycle is typically a 10-year cycle and cow calf producers are currently on the upper-end.

Cattle Inventory

The discussion surrounding inventory is important for all sectors of the cattle industry. Total beef cattle inventory is the lowest it has been in 75 years, raising concern about the future of the cattle industry. Cattle Fax at the UF/IFAS Animal Science Beef Cattle Short Course, indicated producers are making more efficient cattle with higher carcass weights which is compensating for the loss in inventory. Terminal cattle are more efficient from a feed to gain ratio and growth standpoint because that is what they are bred for. The cows in the cow calf sector are becoming increasingly larger leading these females to eat more groceries and have higher maintenance requirements. Large cows can be an issue for cow calf producers if nutrient requirements cannot be met and females do not maintain the proper body condition to breed back every year.

Quality

Producers strive to find great maternal, “good keepers”, and high-quality cows to breed their bulls to. Quality can be defined differently between producers and consumers. Focusing on the quality consumers desire relates to meat quality. We are in a 37 year high for the demand of beef products, with ground beef being one of the leading products. 85% of cattle produced today are grading choice and prime, leading beef cattle professionals to claim producers in the US are heavily focusing on the quality of their cattle. Producers breeding for higher caliber offspring in addition to feeding cattle longer in feedlots has increased marbling within the beef produced.

Beef prices will continue to stay high at the grocery store and at the sale barn well into 2026 and possibly 2027. This article is meant to provide a short debrief of the current U. S. cattle market in hopes of debunking the idea that we are “running out of cattle or losing cattle”. This period of the cattle cycle is not anything new and prices will come back down over time. If you are wanting to add to your herd by purchasing cattle or start your own herd, now would not be the best recommended time to do so since prices are very high. It would take longer for producers to see the return on bred heifers or cows if purchased in this high period of the cycle. It would be recommended if you are looking to thin, cull, or retire from the cow business now is the best time to do so.

See the chart below regarding U.S. Cattle Inventory Projections from the USDA

 

More on this topic can be found in the links provided below. Please contact me by email or phone if you have any questions or would like the discuss your cattle herd plans at micah.gallagher@ufl.edu or (352) 486-5131.

 

Links for further reading:

Cattle Production Cycle – USDA

https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2025/march/livestock-production-cycles-affect-long-term-price-outlook-for-cattle-hogs-and-chickens

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook – USDA

https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/112616/LDP-M-371.pdf?v=94907

CattleFax

https://portal.cattlefax.com/?reportName=USDA+Cattle+on+Feed

Beef Profit Tracker – Drovers

https://www.drovers.com/markets/profit-tracker/beef-profit-tracker-feedlot-estimated-margins-black-last-weeks-671-head

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Posted: May 30, 2025


Category: Agriculture, Livestock, UF/IFAS, UF/IFAS Extension
Tags: Beef Prices, Cattle Cycle, Cattle Prices, Cow Calf Producers, Extension, Florida Beef Cattle, NFLAG, UF IFAS


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