Authored by: Don Shurley, UGA Emeritus Cotton Economist
What should/could have been “support” at around 82 ¢ did not hold. As a result, the slide has continued and price now stands just north of 78 ¢.
This week has been brutal—December futures, after trying to stabilize above 82 ¢, fell 400 points (4 ¢) yesterday and a little more today. Since 82 ¢ tried but didn’t hold, I hesitate to suggest it but the next area of support should be 76 to 78 ¢.
Just like 93 ¢ was arguably too high at that time, a move any lower than 78 ¢ now may be too low. Both would be extremes and not so much grounded in supply and demand fundamentals but in market technicals. So, for the farmer, maybe just wait this out and hope for a recovery back above the previous “support” of 82 ¢.
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Drought conditions are expected to “persist but improve” or be “removed” over the next month in much of the cotton area. But the damage has largely been done at this point but improving conditions can certainly benefit further/additional development.
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The crop condition has trended down but has not changed much over the past month. It has not gotten better but also has not gotten worse. As of September 27, 35% of the US crop was rated poor or very poor. Texas was rated 52% poor or very poor.
USDA’s next crop production estimates and supply/demand projections will be October 9th.
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Export shipments have been pretty consistent. Sales have been low but the most recent weekly sales were much improved. The USDA projection for exports for the 2026 crop year is 12.3 million bales. It’s way early. Shipments must average roughly 240,000 bales per week to meet USDA’s projection.
World demand is projected to be 122.92 million bales—1.79 million bales more than last year. If realized, this would be the highest since 2020 and third highest overall.
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