Rainfall
August 2026 rainfall was near average or below average for most of Florida. The map to the left above shows the range of estimated rainfall in the state. The map to the right compares August 2026 rainfall to historic average. The sections that were yellow, tan, orange, or red were below average. The areas shaded green, blue or purple were above average.
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The rainfall data from the eight UF/IFAS Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations in the Panhandle show more precise variation in August. The highest rainfall total was 10.2″ in Panama City, which was 2.8″ above average. The driest location was at Monticello with only 2.6″, that was -4.1″ below normal. The average for all eight stations was 5.7″, -1.1″ below average.
Through eight months of 2026, there were only two FAWN stations above average, with 52″ at DeFuniak Springs, and 46″ near Jay. Contrast that with only 31″ in Monticello, which was almost 10″ below normal. The average for all eight FAWN stations was 39.5″, which was -2.4″ below normal.
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Rainfall totals don’t tell the whole story. The chart above shows the highs and lows of daily 8″ soil moisture at the Marianna FAWN Station in August 2026. While the total rainfall was only 0.8″ below normal, there were eight days with soil moisture below 10% when irrigation was required for consistent plant performance.
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The Florida Drought Monitor shows there was some improvement across Florida, but most of the state is still in one of the drought categories as we start September. August rainfall did not move the needle on drought improvement very far.
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Temperatures
It was certainly hot in August, with a typical “Dog Days” feel with steamy days from high humidity. Low temperatures stayed above the 70s the entire month, with a low of 71° on August 21st. The high for the month was 98° on August 17 and 18 (remember that official air temperatures are taken in the shade, not like your truck out in the sun on an asphalt road). There were seven days with 6′ air temperature above 95°. The average air temperature was 82°.
The chart below shows the annual summary of weather data from the Marianna FAWN Station. When you look at the temperature data through August, you can see that there have been 18 days above 95°. You can also see that it was just as hot in August as July.
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Harvest Season Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is expecting September to continue with the hotter than average temperatures but makes no prediction for rainfall, except for Southern Florida. I hope for their sake the CPC’s predications are right, because South Florida has been dry for a long time.
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The longer-range 3-Month Outlook shows some changes coming in October and November. They are still expecting warmer temperatures but are expecting higher than average rainfall for much of the Southeast. Likely this change in outlook is due to the increasing the effects of a stronger El Niño.
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The CPC is expecting the Panhandle of Florida to be drought free in the coming months, with drought improvement throughout the rest of Florida. They have been expecting drought improvement for the past several months, but improvement has been limited thus far this year. The CPC is not predicting Florida to be completely drought free but is expecting improvement through November.
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El Niño Advisory
The CPC is still expecting the current El Niño to grow stronger in the coming months. The highest probability of a very strong or “Super El Niño” comes the October through January window. However, El Niño is expected to continue through Spring 2027.
El Niño is present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the east central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. August 31, 2026, Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostics Discussion
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What does this mean for Panhandle farmers and ranchers?
The chart to the right shows collectively how rainfall data from the 8 FAWN Stations in the Panhandle compares to average rainfall. Outside of the months of May and June, 2026 has been drier than a drier than average year. We have been promised drought relief by the CPC for a couple of months in Florida, but it has not really materialized yet. I expect we will see some change as we move into later into the year, but maybe not in September.
El Niño has yet to provide higher than average rainfall for most of Florida, but it certainly seems to have minimized tropical storm devekopment. This hurricane season has been eerily quiet, so let’s hope that trend continues. As the cold fronts start cranking up moving across the U.S. this fall, we should see a real difference from the past couple of years. This may not be good for crop and hay harvest in October and November but should offer some long-term drought relief. I am still expecting a wetter than average winter, so it should be a good year for cool-season forages and small grains. As I shared last month, the chart below shows that Supper El Niño years have a much higher river flooding risk than all other ENSO phase levels. It is hard to think about being too wet, or flooding when we have been so dry for over a year. A wet cool-season could be a problem if we have flooding. The experts are very convinced change is coming, so we will wait and see how it turns out. Check back next month to see what the experts are saying when their forecasts are more certain.
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