Rainfall
Historically in Florida, July is one of the wettest months of the year, but it was not in 2026. The map to the left above shows NOAA’s estimated rainfall from July in Florida. There were areas shaded in fuchsia that received over 9″ in July, while areas shaded tan that had less than 3″. The map to the right above compares 2026 rainfall to historic average. Only isolated areas shaded in green, blue, or purple were above average in 2026. The rest of the state was below average, with areas shaded in red more than -3″ below average.
–
The eight Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations in the Panhandle provided more accurate data for their locations. Carrabelle was the wettest location with 10.8″, which was 2.2″ above normal. By contrast only 2.4″ was recorded in Jay, which was -5.1″ below normal. The average for all eight stations was 6.2″, which was -1.3″ below normal.
From January through July 2026, the eight stations averaged 33.9″, which was -1.3″ below normal. DeFuniak Springs, which was by far the driest location in 2025, has already received 48.4″, that was 12.2″ higher than historic average through 7 months. The driest location remained Panama City where only 28.5″ have been recorded through July, -5.9″below the historic average in Bay County.
–
The chart above shows the daily average -8″ soil moisture reading from the Marianna FAWN Station. Basically, irrigation is beneficial any day with soil moisture at or below 10% soil moisture, so you can see that from July 5 to July 19 our dryland crops and pastures were suffering from drought stress. This chart clearly explains that is not how much rain you get in total, but when it falls that influences crop stress. This location received 2.4″ from July 18-20, so that gives you an idea how much moisture it takes to make such a dramatic improvement in soil moisture.
–
The weekly Florida Drought Monitor maps from June 30 to July 28 show the changes that took place in July 2026. Some areas of Florida saw slight drought improvement while other areas got drier. After such a wet May and an above average June, I was hopeful that the Panhandle would be drought free by this time of the summer, but the vast majority of Florida is still in some category of drought at the end of July.
–
Temperatures
As often happens when it is not raining regularly, Florida got hot and steamy in late July. The hottest 6′ air temperature of the year so far of 98° was recorded on July 29. Remember that these air temperatures are recorded at six feet in the air and in the shade, so I am sure farm trucks were showing triple digits that day out in the sun. Not a single night dropped out of the 70s, as the low was 72° on July 2 and 3.
The chart below shows the complete summary of weather data from the Marianna FAWN station in 2026. You can see that average air temperature rose 2.4°, from 79.8° in June to 82.4° in July. The average daily soil temperature rose 4° from 85° in June to 89° in July. Not shown in the chart, the average wind speed was only 4.4 mph, so unless it was raining, it was hot and still with eight days over 95°. 95° is an important temperature, because when it gets that hot cotton and peanut flowers are heat stressed to infertility. I am sure lactating beef and dairy cattle were negatively affected as well. I know that cowboys and farm workers were suffered from heat stress too.
–
Climate Outlook
The Climate Predication Center (CPC) offers climate predictions for the months ahead. You can see in the maps above that the CPC is expecting a warmer than average August but made no prediction for rainfall. At the Marianna FAWN station, 5.31″ is the August average for the past 74 years. An average rainfall month would be fine as long as it doesn’t all come in one week.
–
The longer ranged 3-Month Outlook from August through October is similar, but with a slightly higher prediction for above average temperatures. As with the August only map, the CPC is expecting near normal rainfall through October. After getting so dry last year in the latter half of summer and fall, normal would be welcomed in 2026.
–
The CPC is expecting drought improvement for Florida, with the Panhandle expected to be out of the drought categories by the end of October. So, improvement is expected, but the peninsula of Florida is expected to remain dry through October.
–
El Niño Advisory
The Climate Prediction Center is expecting the current El Niño to get stronger through the end of 2026 and gradually weaken again in spring 2027. Strong El Niño years have an increased risk of severe weather (tornadoes) and flooding. You can see in the chart above, river floodings were significantly more common in Florida in strong El Niño years. As the Pacific Ocean continues to warm, the climate influence is more certain.
El Niño is present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño. El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027. August 3, 2026 – Climate Prediction Center
–
What does this mean for Panhandle Farmers and Ranchers?
Only two of the eight FAWN Stations in the Panhandle have recorded above average rainfall through July 2026. The chart to the right shows the average monthly rainfall at the eight FAWN stations in the Panhandle versus historic average in 2026. We certainly got a boost of rain in May that helped, but most areas of the Panhandle remain drier than normal at the end of July. The CPC is expecting normal rainfall over the next three months. The 2026 El Niño is growing stronger, so it should be a wetter than normal fall and winter. A strong or super El Niño makes this forecast more certain. This should be a great year to grow winter forages and small grains, if we have good soil moisture at planting. A super El Niño could be an issue for early spring crops like melons and vegetables if we do get some flooding. Most importantly it does sound like drought should be ending soon for Western Florida.
4
