Precipitation
May 2026 was one of the wettest on record in many locations in the Florida Panhandle. The map to the left above shows NOAA’s estimates for rainfall across Florida. While parts of Central and South Florida remined dry, the Panhandle was well above normal. Portions of the Panhandle shaded in Fushia along the Alabama Border ranged from 14-16″ in May, in purple 12-14″, blue 10-12″, and green 8-10″. The map to the right shows the departure from normal, so the area in purple was 9-12″ higher than average, blue 6-9″ above normal, green 3-6″ above normal, and light green 0-3″ above average.
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The Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) weather station data from the eight stations in the Panhandle show more precise variation in May rainfall. In May 2026, rainfall ranged from a high of 17.9″ in DeFuniak Springs (3.8″ above average), to a low of 8.6″ in Monticello (3.8″ above average). At the Marianna North Florida Research and Education Center (NFREC)-Marianna, we have rainfall records dating back to 1952. The 13.34″ recorded in May 2026 (9.6″ above average) was the highest May rainfall total in 75 years, smashing the old record of 10.03″ back in 1991. The average from all eight stations in May was 12.6″, which was 8.8″ above normal.
From January through May, six of eight stations remained below historic average to this point in the year, but the DeFuniak and Jay station were above average. The highest total through May 2026 was in DeFuniak with 29.4″, 5.7″ above historic average. The driest location was Monticello with 16.9″, which was -3.9″ below historic average. The average from all eight stations since January was 20.6″, now just -1.5″ below normal.
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Looking at the changes to daily average -8″ soil moisture at the Marianna FAWN Station shows the roller coaster of soil moisture in 2026. You can see how dry the soil was in March and April, followed by a major rebound in May 2026.
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The higher rainfall totals in May did provide significant drought relief, but according to NOAA the entire Panhandle remains in some level of drought through June 2nd. The greatest improvement was in the Central Time Zone Counites.
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Temperatures
The air and soil temperatures have been climbing, but when you look at the graphic above you see that the areas that received more rain also were cooler than normal in May 2026. That is not surprising because the Marianna FAWN station recorded rainfall on 18 of 31 days in May.
The chart to the right shows the high and low temperature variation at the Marianna FAWN Station. There was a 45° temperature swing in May 2026, from a low of 46° on May 3 to a 91° high on May 19. The average 6′ air temperature was 73°. The trend lines in the chart show a fairly rapid warm up through May. The morning lows stayed above 70° from May 23-31.
One issue that did arise was that the daily average soil temperature dropped below 70° on May 2 & 3, which is the ideal temperature for peanut seed germination. We finally had some moisture to plant with, so people were anxious to plant peanuts, but had to wait a couple days on the soil to warm back up again. However, from May 4 on this was not an issue.
The chart blow provides a summary of weather data from the Marianna FAWN Station. There are several key points to share from this chart.
- At the end of April, Marianna was -11.2″ below normal, and by the end of May that deficit was down to -1.4″ below historic average.
- The average 6′ air temperature in May rose 4° from 69.5° in April to 73.5° in May.
- The change in average soil temperature was minimal, rising only 1° from 77° in April to 78° in May.
- The average soil moisture rose 8.1%, from 9.8% in April to 17.9% for the month of May.
- Despite all of the rain that came through, the top wind speed in Marianna was only 28 mph. So, the active rainfall pattern did not provide any severe weather at this location.
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Summer Climate Outlook
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is expecting near normal temperatures in June, but higher than normal rainfall is expected. This wetter trend should help the entire state of Florida improve drought status.
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The CPC’s 3-Month or Summer Outlook shows that they are expecting a warmer than average summer but make no predictions for rainfall, so we should expect near normal rainfall through August. At the Marianna location, June through August rainfall typically provide 30% of the annual rainfall (16.4″ average), so normal would be good.
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As you would expect from all of the recent rains, the CPC is expecting Florida to see improvement in the drought status, but as of May 31, were not ready to say that most of the state will be out of drought. Only the portions of the map in olive green were expected to be removed from drought status by August. This could change depending on June rainfall levels.
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El Niño Watch
Everyone in the weather/climate world has started talking about a Super El Niño. The CPC shared the following information on their June 1st ENSO Update:
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above-average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026 February 2027). Climate Prediction Center – June 1, 2026
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I am sure you have been hearing or reading about the growing possibility of a strong or “Super El Niño” this fall and winter. The grey bars in the chart above represent the probability of a Normal ENSO phase, and the pink to dark red bars are the probability of an El Niño in the second half of 2026. The difference in the categories is based on the average Pacific water temperature increasing 1/2° (light pink) = weak, 1° = moderate (pink), or 1 1/2° = strong (dark pink), or 2° = very strong (burgundy).
This sounds scary, but according to UGA’s Pam Knox, “NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their latest ENSO outlook for the coming months on May 14. It shows that El Nino is likely to emerge in the May through July period and strengthen throughout the rest of this year, lasting into next winter. There is a chance that it could become a very strong event, although it is important to recognize that stronger events do not always mean bigger impacts, but they do mean expected impacts are more likely to occur.” You can read more about this in her series of articles on El Nino and La Nina.
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What this means for farmers and ranchers in the Florida Panhandle?
I, like many of you, have never seen a May like 2026 in the Panhandle. The drought is not over yet, but there has been significant progress. Normal summer rainfall could put drought in the rearview mirror. I hope the current forecasts are correct. However, a strong El Niño typically means reduced tropical storms, so this could reduce tropical moisture for Florida later in the summer and early fall. El Niño typically has the most dramatic effects on winter cold fronts, so the if we do have a strong El Niño, it will most likely be felt in the November through February timeframe. For the Southeast, it means a cool & wet winter, which means basically the opposite of the last three winters. A normal summer should mean a good crop and hay growing season, but we all know that normal summer weather patterns can be variable. In my opinion, we are through the worst of the drought but know there still could be short-term dry spells ahead. I would be preparing for a wetter growing season in 2026, which means timely fungicide applications to minimize disease pressure, and timely herbicide applications to prevent serious weed infestations. With more frequent rainfall it may be challenging to find windows for making dry hay, so this may be a year to make more baleage in the summer months. It could also be the year to invest more in winter grazing and small grain crops than we have the past two years. The current forecast is positive, so let’s see how this plays out.
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