Rainfall
The first quarter of 2026 was very dry across most of Florida. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides rainfall estimate maps for Florida and also provides a comparison with historic average. The map to the left above shows NOAA’s estimated rainfall for January through March 2026. Rainfall in the Panhandle ranged from 3.5-5″ (yellow), 5-6.5″ (light green), 6.5-8″ (dark green), 8-9.5″ (light blue), with a small area of 9.5-11″ (purple). The map to the right shows that almost the entire state of Florida had below average rainfall in the 1st quarter, except for the southern tip of Dade County. In the map to the right, you can see that Panhandle was all well below historic average. The areas in orange were -2 to -4″ below average, in light red were -6 to -8″ below average, and in dark red were -8 to -10″ below average.
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The eight Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN) stations in the Panhandle provide more precise data for rainfall through the first three months of 2026. The driest location was Carrabelle with only 4.9″, which was -7,6″ below normal, while 8″ was collected in Monticello, which was -5.3″ below average. The average for all eight stations was 7.1″, which was -7.1″ below average. In other words, we got about half our normal rainfall on the heels of a very dry fall.
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The rainfall numbers don’t tell the whole story though, as they don’t show the level of soil moisture. The chart above shows the daily average soil moisture at the 8″ depth in Marianna. The current drought that started in August, improved some over the winter months with shorter and cooler days. Starting in March, however, the decline in daily average soil moisture was rapid. It was approaching the 7.1% low in late September before rainfall in the 1st week of April brought the level back up some.
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Most of the Panhandle has been in one of the drought categories since September 19, 2025. The comparison of the two maps above shows that the Panhandle started 2026 in drought but was much more severe on the last day of March.
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Temperatures
La Niña years typically feature cooler than average temperatures starting in the fall and ending in early spring. Florida had a very damaging freeze for vegetable and citrus crops in Central and South Florida. While it was a colder than average winter in the Panhandle, there were not extreme lows. The charts above show the range in temperatures recorded at the Marianna FAWN Station. January ranged from a high of 81° on January 10 to a low of 24° on December 16, with an average for the month of 51°. February temperatures ranged from a high of 84° on February 21, to a low of 21° on February 1, with a monthly average of 56°. March ranged from a high of 86° on March 10 & 11, to a low of 31° on March 18, with a monthly average of 65°.
The bottom charts above show the daily average soil temperature fluctuations through the 1st quarter of 2026. The red line at 55° shows the minimum recommended soil temperature for corn seed germination, and the green line at 60° marks the optimal temperature for corn seed germination. You can see that, with exception to March 17 & 18, the soil was warm enough for corn planting for almost the entire month of March.
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The summary chart above provides a great overview of the weather data from the 1st quarter of 2026. The station at Marianna was -8″ below the average of historic rainfall records kept at this location since 1952. Look at the columns with the average temperatures, February air temperatures rose 5.1° as compared to January, and March was 8.7° warmer than February. Average soil temperatures rose 3° in February as compared to January, and another 11° in March. The other interesting data was that the average soil moisture that dropped 5% in March as compared to February. Typically, March is the 2nd wettest of the year, behind July, but not in 2026.
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Climate Outlook
The 1st Quarter Weather Summary above was certainly gloomy, but changes are expected to our climate over the next quarter.
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The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) April 23-29 Climate Outlook map forecast shows a high certainty of above average temperatures, with 33-40% chance of above average rainfall to close out April. Clearly the CPC is thinking that the High-Pressure system that has been blocking rainfall since the first few days of April will move away and allow some rain to move through the area.
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The CPC’s May Outlook maps show a high expectation of above average temperatures in the Panhandle but makes no prediction for rainfall in May 2026. So, we can expect average rainfall in May, which is historically the 2nd driest month of the year.
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The longer ranged, CPC May through July Outlook maps show that while it will likely remain warmer than average, there is a 33-40% chance the Panhandle will have above average rainfall, and a 40-50% chance that the Florida Peninsula will have above average rainfall.
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The recently released Seasonal Drought Outlook Map shows that the CPC is expecting drought improvement for all of Florida through the end of July. Notice it says improvement, not removal for most of Florida. But there is hope for improvement ahead.
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El Niño Watch
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced on April 9 that La Niña has ended, so we are currently in the Neutral ENSO Phase, with high expectations of El Niño in the coming months. There has been discussion in the media about the possibility of a “Super El Niño” this fall and winter. The CPC, however, shared a probability chart (below) that shows only a 25% chance of a Very Strong El Niño.
During the last month, ENSO-neutral conditions emerged, as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific Ocean. The equatorial subsurface temperature index increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average subsurface temperatures extending across the Pacific. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average favors ENSO-neutral through April-June 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. El Niño is likely because of increasing subsurface temperature anomalies and recent westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean. However, the possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El Niño during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter. The possibility of a very strong El Niño (1 in 4 chance of Niño ≥ +2.0°C) largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured. In summary, ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026. Climate Prediction Center April 9, 2026
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What does this mean for Panhandle farmers and ranchers?
La Niña is no longer affecting the climate in the North Florida. That by itself is good news. We are currently experiencing very serious drought conditions, but there is hope for the months ahead. The CPC is expecting above average rainfall at the end of April, a normal May, with above average rainfall in June or July. Crop and pasture planting in the coming weeks will be somewhat risky. I would encourage you to take full advantage of soil moisture when it becomes available. The May historic average for all eight FAWN Stations in the Panhandle is only 3.8″, so an average May will not end the current drought. Both planting and fertilization have been on hold for most of April. There may be some rainfall windows ahead, so pay close attention to short-term weather forecasts. Currently there is no significant chances of rain in the 7-day forecast for the Panhandle. Hopefully this High-Pressure System will move out soon. That is what the CPC is predicting, but it may be June or July before we start to have more regular rainfall. So, it may be a dry start to the growing season, but there is hope for drought improvement in the future, and an increasing possibility of a wetter than normal fall and winter because of an El Niño.
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