Rainfall

The climate forecast of a warmer and drier than normal La Niña winter came true for the most part in the Panhandle.  The maps above show the variation from normal rainfall in January, February, and March.  In general. all of the gold, orange and red areas on these maps were below average, and the green, blue, and purple shaded areas were above average in 2025.  So, there were isolated wet spots, but most of Florida was drier than normal for through the 1st quarter of 2025.  The map to the right is a composite of January through March rainfall compared to historic average for the state of Florida.  Other than a pocket along the Gulf in the Big Bend Region, the majority of Florida was drier than normal.

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The eight Florida FAWN stations provide a more accurate record data base to compare the 1st Quarter of 2025 with historic average. The bar graph above shows how far from average each station was in 2025.The chart to the right shows the specific data from each month.  There was a disparity between the four stations in the Eastern Time Zone versus the four in the Central Time Zone.   The wettest station was in Monticello, with 15.1″, which was 1.8″ above normal.  Contrast that with the FAWN Station in DeFuniak Springs that only recorded 7.5″ and was -8″ below average from January through March.  The average for all eight stations was 12.8″, which was -1.5″ below normal.

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Even though the rainfall total for the first three months of 2025 was below normal, the March rainfall was enough to boost North Florida out of the Drought Monitor by the end of of the month.  However, Central and South Florida had worse drought conditions at the end of the 1st Quarter.

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Temperatures

In the maps above you can see how average temperatures varied from January through March compared to normal.  January was 4-8° cooler than normal, which was not a surprise with the historic snow week in Northwest Florida.   February was 4-6° warmer than normal (orange) for much of Florida. March was closer to normal except for the regions that also had above average rainfall in the Big Bend. 

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The air temperatures recorded at the FAWN Station in Marianna show the swings through the 1st Quarter of 2025.  The low in January in Marianna was 14° (11º at Jay Station) the night after the snow fell on January 22nd.  Just nine days later, the high of 77° was recorded on January 31st, which was a 63° temperature range in a single month.  The average air temperature for January was 45°.  February ranged 54°, from a high of 82° on February 9th to a low of 28° on the morning of February 21st.  The average air temperature was 59 ° in February.  March air temperatures ranged 49°, with a low of 35° on March 3rd to a high of 84° on March 15th.  The average air temperature in March was 62°.  There were 15 mornings below freezing from January through March in 2025.

The boxes below the air temperature charts above show the variation of average soil temperatures.  The blue line shows the variation in the daily average -4″ soil temperature, the red line at 55° represents the minimum planting temperature for corn seed germination, and the green line at 60° represents ideal temperature for corn seed germination.  You can see how the average soil temperatures fluctuated through the first three months of 2025. This shows how a warm spell can fool you into thinking the cool nights are over too soon.  This year the last date below 55° was February 24th.

Download the complete daily weather summary from the Marianna FAWN Station, and monthly rainfall summary from all eight FAWN Stations in the Panhandle:  January-March 2025 Jackson Co Weather Summary

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Climate Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) April outlook expects warmer than average air temperatures.  The precipitation outlook makes no prediction for the Panhandle but expects Northeast Florida and a portion of the Bug Bend to receive below average rainfall in April.

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The longer range CPC Outlook for the 2nd Quarter of 2025 calls for warmer than average temperatures, but makes no prediction for rainfall across the entire Southeastern U.S.

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The CPC’s Drought Outlook forecasts show that the southern half of Florida will likely remain dry for the month of April, but by the end of June only the far southern tip of Florida will remain dry with some improvement.  Much of the corn and cotton belt of the U.S. is expected to remain in drought through the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025. The CPC makes no prediction of drought in North Florida over the next three months.

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ENSO Neutral  Expected Soon

The CPC is expecting a shift away from La Niña to ENSO Neutral very soon. The chart above shows the greatest probability in the coming months is ENSO Neutral.  This early in the year, it is very difficult to predict what we will face this winter, as shown by the equal chances for La Niña or Neutral in October through December, with a much lower chance of El Niño this fall.  Forecasters have not pulled the trigger and made the switch yet back to neutral but agree the La Niña is weakening in the Pacific.  Based on their outlook, I would expect more normal rainfall patterns again in the coming months.

During February 2025, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. All weekly Niño indices reflected this decline, with near-to-below average values lingering … Tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies continued to indicate La Niña conditions… Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected weakening La Niña conditions and a trend toward ENSO-neutral.  The IRI and North American multi-model ensemble predicts a transition to ENSO-neutral in the coming season. The forecast team concurs and predicts ENSO-neutral, with chances greater than 50% through July-September 2025. As is typical for forecasts made in the spring, there is large forecast uncertainty at longer time horizons, with no outcome exceeding a 50% chance (chances of El Niño are the lowest). In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (62% chance in June-August 2025). Climate Prediction Center – March 13, 2025

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What does this mean for Panhandle Farmers and Ranchers?

2024 ended with three very dry months, with much of the Florida Panhandle in the Abnormally Dry or Moderate Drought categories at the start of 2025.  The counties in the Central Time Zone remained below average through the 1st Quarter of 2025 but were slightly above average in the Eastern Time Zone.  March rainfall was enough to boost all of North Florida out of the Drought Monitor at the end of March, so soil moisture has been improving recently.  The CPC Outlook for April expects some of the Eastern Time Zone Counties to be drier than normal.  The longer ranged 3-Month Outlook made no predictions for rainfall through June.  It does appear that La Niña is fading quickly, so the more normal or Neutral phase should be expected through the primary growing season.  The current forecasts look more positive than we have had for the past several months.  However, normal rainfall in late April and May is somewhat limited, so don’t expect a wet start to the growing season.  Plant with good moisture if possible, so crops can get a fast start before the hot and dry period comes in late May and early June.   The ENSO forecast for the upcoming fall and winter is still up in the air but will become more certain as we move through the year. Stay tuned as we watch to see how the 2025 growing season will be remembered.  After the past two seasons, closer to normal would be a welcomed change.

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Featured image – Stormy weather over a rural farmland with heavy rain and dark clouds, an old barn stands alone in the middle of the field was generated using AI for Adobe Stock images by AR Hendrix.